Latest Trends in International Student Enrollment

On January 22, 2024, Marc Miller, the Minister of Immigration, Refugees, and Citizenship, announced a significant shift in Canada’s approach to international student enrollment. A new intake cap on international student permit applications was set, aiming to stabilize new growth for the next two years. This policy is expected to result in a 35% decrease in international student permits compared to 2023.

Additionally, new restrictions were introduced for the work permit program following the Post-Graduation Program. As of May 15, 2024, international students who begin a study program that is part of a curriculum licensing arrangement are now prevented from applying for a work permit.

Over the past six months, these changes have dramatically altered Canada’s international education landscape. The temporary study permit cap has significantly impacted student enrollment patterns. The latest data from Q1 2024, released by Immigration, Refugees, and Citizenship Canada (IRCC), reveals how this cap has added complexity and uncertainty to the permit approval process.

During this period, the processing of study permits for certain programs was temporarily halted. This pause allowed provinces to receive their allocations for 2024 and establish the necessary provincial attestation letter (PAL) procedures. The national processing of permits was suspended on January 22, 2024, and resumed after provinces had implemented their PAL processes by March 31, 2024.

These measures underscore the Canadian government’s efforts to manage the influx of international students while addressing the logistical and administrative challenges that come with it. As these policies continue to unfold, prospective international students must stay informed about the evolving landscape of Canadian immigration and education.

There are three main purposes that contributed to the creation of this policy:

1. With the increasing number of international students arriving, they will need a place to live, this will not only push forward the leasing price but also the housing price. Meanwhile, as Canada is an immigration country, every year more than 400,000 new immigrants land in Canada. TD Economics estimates Canada could be short over 300,000 housing units from 2023–2025. As such, Canadian residents will face high expenditures on housing.
2. The new policy will affect the healthcare system. Toronto’s St. Michael’s Hospital conducted a national survey, which states that there are 6 million Canadians who do not have family doctors. With the arrival of International students, the healthcare system will be worse, and International students will not receive proper healthcare support as well.
3. The Private Public Partnership College Program has attracted a certain amount of mixed International Students in recent years, and it caused loopholes in terms of eligibility for post-graduation work permits.

What are the three intriguing trends in international student enrollment resulting from this policy?

1. First of all, the International students who apply for the PPP program, which is the Private Public Partnership Program, will be diminished and even vanished. This type of program admits students with low thresholds, after graduating from the school, they can apply for a Post-Graduate work permit, and after they have been taken by the school, they bring their spouse into Canada as well. Consequently, the employment supply exceeds the demand in the job market, and the new immigrants are facing the situation of competing for the same job position with International students and their spouses. Fanshawe ILac is one of these schools, and they have posted a Questions and Answers list regarding the new policy. It stated that they will not be taking International Student applications for fall 2024, and that will lead to less and less international student enrollment in the next two years.
2. Second, the number of international students enrolled in Ontario and British Columbia will drop tremendously. According to the Royal Bank of Canada Economist, there will be most constraints in the two provinces where international student admissions, 53% and 19% of the Canadian total, respectively, based on provincial population shares. As the policy states, individual provincial and territorial caps will be weighted by population. And most of the universities are located within these two provinces.
3. Third, this will stimulate more International students to apply Master’s degree in Canada than before. On February 5, 2024, the additional information about the International Student Program Reforms announcement by the government stated that those who are graduating from a master’s degree program that is less than 2 years old and who meet all other PGWP eligibility criteria will be given a longer, 3-year post-graduation work permit. The interpretation of this policy is that International Students will find it easier to get a Post-graduation work permit (PGWP) than before, even if the length of the Master’s Program is less than two years.

By and large, after the new policy was implemented, it had a huge impact on the enrollment of International Students, especially for the study program that is part of a curriculum licensing arrangement. There will be a sharp downward enrollment trend in the coming two years.

Despite the current challenges, there is hope that Canada can reverse the trend and sustain its status as a top destination for international scholars. By addressing the issues causing lower approval rates and improving support for overseas students, Canada can continue to attract talented individuals who contribute to its workforce, innovation, and cultural diversity.